IT JUST MAY BE A LUNATIC YOU'RE LOOKING FOR
There’s a school of thought that believes Trump’s tweet storms are just a sideshow, intentional misdirection calculated distract the press and the public from much worse things happening elsewhere. That theory is believable because it’s pretty much what happened during the campaign. Trump’s tweets are indeed distracting, and there are definitely bad things happening.
Personally, I’m coming around to the position that Trump’s tantrums are genuine, and that they’re worth paying attention to. They do function as a smokescreen, but they’re more than that. They’re part of his personality, a window into what seems to be Trump’s mental deterioration. He’s always been a narcissist, and it’s possible that he’s beginning to show signs of dementia.
We can be sure that both the Republican Party and Vladimir Putin are keeping a close eye on Trump’s mental stability, or lack thereof. For Republicans and Russians, Trump is basically a useful idiot. The minute that “idiot” outweighs “useful,” they’ll dump him, each in their own separate ways.
Putin invested in Trump originally as an opportunity to introduce a disruptive element into the American electoral process. A confused America is in Russia’s strategic interest. Not because they aspire to world domination, as mid-century cold war propaganda had it. They simply want to dominate their immediate neighbors, especially the nations that had been part of the old USSR and a few of their former Iron Curtain satellites. A year ago, when the European Union was intact and there was a stable America at the head of a united NATO, Russia’s neighbors had an incentive to pursue integration with the West. Nowadays, not so much.
I also buy the theory that Putin – like everyone else, including me – expected Hillary Clinton to win, and that his aim in giving embarrassing material to Wikileaks was simply to see how much damage he could do to her credibility when she became President. Putin’s strategy worked just well enough to give him an early Christmas present. Instead of a weakened Hillary Clinton in the White House, he got Donald Trump – a lazy, ignorant, and easily manipulable figurehead. Comrade Trumpovich promptly nominated several friends of Russia for prominent leadership positions in his new regime. Many of his high level appointees – Bannon, Lewandowski, Flynn, Tillerson, Mattis – have longstanding financial and/or philosophical ties to the Russian oligarchy. That even includes Trump’s legal team, Morgan, Lewis & Bockius, which was named Russian Law Firm of the Year in 2016.
After the election, Trump’s pronouncements on international relations shifted from a focus on immigration towards talk of undoing strategic alliances created over 70 years by Republican and Democratic administrations alike. Those treaties would be replaced by a new approach that just happened to promote three of Russia’s highest priorities – weakening the European Union (and Germany in particular), breaking up NATO, and annoying China. Quite a remarkable series of coincidences, eh?
As long as President Trump continues to destabilize Western alliances and create discord in America, Putin will be happy. He doesn’t care about the specifics of domestic policy, as long as they’re controversial. And if Trump outlives his usefulness, Putin’s can simply ghost him, or start dropping hints about Russian hookers and “kompromat.” Either would make Trump crazy. He’d send silly tweets that would further discredit him – and us. Win-win for the Russians.
If Republicans were honest – don’t hold your breath – they’d admit that their interest in foreign policy is more symbolic than pragmatic. Complain loudly about Muslims, being sure to use the phrase “radical Islam.” Threaten immigrants with deportation. Keep talking about that wall. It’s all red meat for the base, and talk is cheap.
Domestic issues are what Republicans really care about, and their priorities are tax cuts for the rich and legislation that will keep women and minorities in their place. They’re willing to let Trump take the heat on those issues. But if his eccentric behavior continues, and/or if any of these issues blow up in their faces, all they have to do is invoke the 25th Amendment and declare that “the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” Voila, Mike Pence is Acting President until Trump’s term is up.
I fervently hope that the Democratic Party is talking to psychologists about Trump’s behavior and making contingency plans in case there’s a meltdown. Leadership and coordinated strategy is important. We need to be at least as prepared as the Russians and Republicans.