THE TOAST OF THE TOWN
THE TOAST OF THE TOWN: I love, L-U-V, the way Robert Mueller has handled the indictments so far. There’s an initial shock, then a pause, and then new information that sends a clear message to his real target, Donald Trump. And the message is: You’re screwed. In October, Mueller announced the Manafort/Gates indictments and let the White House gloat about how those crimes had nothing to do with Trump. And then Mueller dropped the news about the George Papadopoulos guilty plea.
On Friday, Mueller announced that Mike Flynn had pleaded guilty to a relatively minor procedural offense, and the White House once again took a victory lap, even referring to Flynn as an Obama administration official. When Mueller released the actual charges, though, they indicated that Flynn was prepared to testify that a “senior” and “very senior” member of Trump’s transition team had ordered him to communicate with the Russians. NBC has identified Mr. Very Senior as Jared Kushner. The nominal head of the transition team was VP-Elect Michael Pence, so perhaps he’s Mr. Senior. We’ll know soon.
An article in Slate by Jed Handelsman Shugerman (link below) suggests that Mueller and his team also crafted Manafort’s and Flynn’s indictments so as to limit the value of any pardons Trump might decide to offer. Manafort and Flynn could have been charged with additional crimes. Shugerman suggests that Mueller made a strategic decision not to do so, for the time being, at least, to leave the door open for state prosecutors (who are beyond the reach of Trump’s pardon power) to bring those additional charges without running into a defense of double jeopardy.
I look forward to admiring similar handiwork in the coming indictments against Very Senior and Senior campaign officials.
Beyond pardons, the other weapon that Trump theoretically has at his disposal is simply to fire Mueller and disband his team. That would essentially be an admission of guilt, but Trump and congressional Republicans are probably beyond caring at this point. Republicans are nihilists now. Their only goal is to grab as much loot as they can carry while running for the door. Ignoring one more constitutional crisis won’t faze them.
But Mueller’s team could continue to function outside the Justice Department. They could pack up their files and move to New York, where they could work for New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman. It was widely reported last August that the two men were collaborating on the Manafort investigation.
My feeling is that Mueller has left Trump without viable options. He can blow everything up immediately – fire Mueller, pardon everyone he cares about, and hope that his usual smoke and mirrors routine will be enough to allow Republicans to hang on to the House of Representatives next November. Or he can wait and watch Mueller’s legal team squeeze his family and his associates like a boa constrictor.
Trump’s not a guy who’s good at waiting and watching, so if I were a betting man, I’d wager that he pardons his family and himself of all federal charges. But that won’t save them. They’ll all face criminal charges in other jurisdictions. As #NeverTrump Republican Rick Wilson has said, Robert Mueller is holding a royal flush, and Donald Trump is trying to bluff with a pair of twos.
Mueller will get an opportunity to tell his story somewhere, and then it will be up to us, as citizens, to throw the rascals out. It sounds melodramatic, but the elections of 2018 and 2020 will decide whether we keep our democracy or continue our descent into oligarchy.