WHAT MAD PURSUIT? WHAT STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE?

WHAT MAD PURSUIT? WHAT STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE?   Despite the best efforts of the Republican echo chamber, the most common descriptions I’ve heard of the Devin Nunes memo have been “nothing-burger” and “dud.”  True Believers gonna true-believe, but I’m not aware of a single non-partisan source that has found “The Memo” persuasive.  Of course, I get most of my news from the Deep State Ministry of Agitprop.  They report, I decide.

Face it, Deplorables.  When even Trey Gowdy, the Lion of Benghazi, says there’s nothing in The Memo that reflects badly on Robert Mueller’s investigation, it’s a pretty clear indication that Nunes was trying to cover up the truth rather than to reveal it.

I agree with Matt Yglesias of Vox Media, who tweeted Sunday that: “The FBI kept an open counterintelligence probe of the GOP nominee secret at McConnell’s behest while the Director twice violated DOJ guidelines to hit Clinton’s campaign. Everyone saw that happen and the people pretending to believe otherwise don’t deserve the time of day. You can mount a plausible defense of each of the Bureau’s choices in isolation. You can mount a less plausible defense of the consistency between them. But there’s no plane of reality in which they were out to stop Trump. If they had been, he’d have been stopped!”

Republicans have obviously never read John Keats’ poem, “Ode on a Grecian Urn.”  If they had, they might have understood that as long as it remained secret, The Nunes Memo had a certain mystical aura which gave it some potency.  Keats was right: “Heard melodies are sweet, but those unheard are sweeter.”  But Republicans are tone deaf.  They have no use for melody.  They only listen to the voices in their own heads. 

Trump even used The Memo to declare himself totally vindicated, and labeled the Special Counsel’s investigation “an American disgrace!”  Some reasonable people believe that Trump will use The Memo as an excuse to gut the Justice Department, fire Mueller, and disband the investigation.  Bill Kristol, a #NeverTrump Republican, tweeted his version of the worst-case scenario on Saturday:

“Trump endgame: Refuses to testify and takes 5th; fires Rosenstein and/or Sessions and/or Mueller if useful for delay or impeding investigation; pardons key players; avoids or survives impeachment because it seems partisan and there’s no (he hopes) smoking gun. Clinton/OJ model.”

Any of those things would be bad, but survivable.  The real worst-case scenario would be that Republicans kept their majorities in the House and Senate in the 2018 elections.  The good news is that right now, Republicans aren’t acting like they expect that to happen.  Instead, 35 incumbent House Republicans and 2 incumbent Senate Republicans have announced their retirements.  By way of comparison, only 16 Democrats in the House and zero in the Senate are retiring (data for both parties current as of February 5). 

Some retirements at the end of each term are to be expected, but Republican retirements this year have already exceeded Watergate-era levels.  Historically, when there’s a big spike in majority party incumbents opting for retirement, it means that a shift in the balance of power is coming.  

Still, it won’t do for the good guys to get overconfident.  Remember that Republicans don’t play fair.  Gerrymandering has given them a structural advantage, and vote suppression in key states will do the same.  We can also assume that Vladimir Putin will do whatever he can get away with to help his pal Donald in 2018, just as he did so successfully in 2016. 

As if that weren’t enough, there are reports that one of Trump’s advisors (Matthew Pottinger, National Security Council senior director for Asian affairs) said privately last week that a “limited” war with North Korea “might help in the midterm elections.”  It’s always helpful to have subordinates who think proactively.

Now comes my usual exhortation.  Whether Trump fires everyone or no one, whether he pardons everyone or no one – the key to saving American democracy is to win back (at a minimum) the House of Representatives in 2018.  The election is on November 6.  We can rest when the polls close.  Until then, let’s keep our eyes on the prize.