THIS TIME THEY BIT OFF MORE THAN THEY CAN CHEW

“They were careless people,” wrote F. Scott Fitzgerald about the protagonists in The Great Gatsby.  “They smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”

Donald Trump has probably never heard of Jay Gatsby and Daisy Buchanan, but he and his family are their 21st century successors.  And Michael Cohen was one of the people Trump hired to clean up his messes. 

Cohen testified to Congress on Wednesday that Donald Trump didn’t expect to win the election; he entered the race as a marketing ploy, and was surprised (and initially dismayed) when he won.  Conservative pundits said, hey, wait a minute.  You can’t argue that Trump didn’t want to win and simultaneously argue that he and his campaign asked Russia to help them beat Hillary Clinton. 

It’s a fair point, but one that is easily resolved.  In fact, there are several ways to reconcile this apparent contradiction.  The most obvious one is simple logic – you can participate in a race (be it a foot race or a political race) not expecting to win but still trying your best.  I don’t think that particular logic applies in this case, but I offer the example by way of demonstrating that the apparent contradiction is less than meets the eye.

I think Trump’s 2016 campaign makes a lot more sense if you assume that Trump is Putin’s willing dupe; and that both of them have motives that profoundly anti-democratic.  Both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are far enough outside the mainstream of American politics that pundits find it impossible to process their motives. 

My assumption is that Trump began his campaign in 2015 with one set of motives – primarily to extend his brand into the political arena in preparation for some big media launch.  But when victory became at least plausible (say when he was informed that Russia was willing to intervene on his behalf), he decided to go for it.  He enjoyed speaking before adoring crowds, listening to them cheer his every excess and transgression.  For a narcissist, it was the ultimate validation.  He could say and do anything – he boasted that he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone, and not lose his base.  Why not go for it? 

That doesn’t mean he’s a criminal mastermind, playing eight-dimensional chess.  He’s a spoiled rich guy who’s accustomed to getting away with things.  As Sarah Kendzior put it, “Trump is not playing chess, he's playing charades. He's a career criminal skilled at spin. His backers, a transnational alliance, design the geopolitical strategy, not Trump.”

Vladimir Putin is capable of playing multi-dimensional chess, but I don’t believe that in 2015,  he expected expect Donald Trump to wind up in the White House.  He was happy enough to see Trump enter the race as a disruptive force.  Throwing sand in the gears of the American political system advances Russia’s long-term strategic goals.  Even when the primaries were over and the general election turned out to be Trump vs. Clinton, my guess is that Putin still didn’t expect his boy to win.  His initial aim was simply to damage Hillary Clinton’s reputation, so that she’d take office under a cloud and be preoccupied with scandals from day one. 

Basically, Putin bought himself a lottery ticket and hit the jackpot.  Trump, whose overriding ambition for much of 2016 was getting Putin to support the construction of Trump Tower Moscow, went along for the ride and suddenly found himself with a job, and a life, he didn’t want. 

If you find that hard to believe, take a look at the remarkable photo that accompanies this post.  It was taken on election night, 2016, ABC had just called the race for Trump.  Don Jr. is ecstatic.  Trump’s inner circle applauds and cheers.  But Trump himself?  I’d say he looks like his dog just died, except that Trump hates dogs.  He certainly doesn’t look like a guy who just achieved the goal of a lifetime. 

He looks more like a guy watching the shit hit the fan in slow motion.He doesn’t know exactly what’s going to happen next, but he knows his life just changed irreversibly, in ways he can’t predict and probably won’t like.For that one brief, shining moment, Donald Trump was the smartest person in the room.