I’M YOUR YANKEE DOODLE DANDY IN A GOLD ROLLS ROYCE

I want the Democratic presidential candidate, whoever it may be, to win in November.  As in, becoming the next president, living in White House for at least four years, reversing as much Trump damage as possible, and all that good stuff. 

I intend to vote in the March 17 Arizona Democratic primary, and electability – the candidate with the best chance of beating Donald Trump – will be my primary criterion.  The map that accompanies this post comes from The American Prospect, and it illustrates the challenge that Democrats face.  The Democratic nominee, no matter who it turns out to be, will almost certainly carry California, thereby earning 55 electoral votes.  But the number will stay at 55 whether the Democrat wins by a million votes, or by just one. 

Running up big popular vote majorities in deep blue states is nice, but it didn’t make Hillary Clinton president in 2016.  The path to the White House runs through the Electoral College, and the magic number is 270.

Republicans have some deep red states they can count on through thick and thin.  Accepting, for the moment, The American Prospect’s estimates, it looks like Trump 139 EC votes locked up, with another 66 leaning Republican.  That’s 207 out of the required 270.

The generic Democrat, on the other hand, can count on 179 solidly blue votes, with another 58 leaning towards the good guys.  That’s 237 Electoral College votes – tantalizingly close, but still short of victory.  The candidate that can compete successfully for the 110 electoral votes in the remaining nine states will be our next president.    

My current assumption is that Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg will still be viable candidates when the Arizona primary rolls around on March 17.  Biden and Klobuchar look possible but less certain.  Bloomberg is kind of a wild card, but we know he has enough money to stay in the race as long as he wants. 

I’ve already written that policy differences between the Democratic candidates don’t matter much to me, and won’t likely play a role in my choice on March 17.  Donald Trump is the issue I care about most.  Getting rid of him is job one.  My primary vote will go to the candidate who, in my estimation, has the best chance of getting to 270 electoral votes in November.  And I’ll try to assess the situation candidate by candidate, and state by state, for the states that are in play.  I won’t ask that the Democrat beat Trump in Mississippi.  But I do expect them to hold on to traditional Democratic states and compete successfully in enough swing states to get to 270 electoral votes.

That means I’ll be asking questions like, could Sanders carry Arizona?  Could Bloomberg carry Wisconsin?  Could Warren carry Florida?  And so on.   

I’ve also written about my hope that the eventual Democratic nominee will be younger than I am.  Remarkably, the three oldest candidates are still in the race.  I’ve criticized those three members of the Silent Generation on other grounds as well.  I’ve noted that some (not all!) of Sanders’ supporters are the mirror image of Trump’s Deplorables.  I’ve scoffed at Biden’s insistence that once Trump is gone, Republicans will magically turn into responsible citizens.  And of Bloomberg, I wrote that no billionaire will win the Democratic nomination. 

But because getting rid of Donald Trump is job one, if one of those gentlemen should happen to win the nomination, I promise to overlook their age, their obnoxious supporters, their naivete, and/or their wealth.  Ditto for whatever drawbacks the younger contenders might bring to the table.  If I made a list of everything I disliked about each Democratic contender, and then added all those negatives together, the whole mess would pale in comparison to the alternative, which is four more years of Donald Trump.

For me, it’s Blue, no matter who.  If Bernie Sanders is the Democratic nominee, I’ll send him money, I’ll urge everyone within earshot to support him, and I’ll vote for him enthusiastically.  Same for Amy Klobuchar, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Mike Bloomfield.  

OK, I might not send money to Mike Bloomberg, because he has enough already.